What Drives Trump-Putin Affinity: Common Adversaries, Merging Interests, Autocrat Envy

Donald Trump fuelled suspicions that his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, held sway over him with rash decisions during the US president’s first term, including by firing Federal Bureau of Investigation chief James B Comey as the agency led a probe into the Trump campaign’s collusion with Russia

In October 2017, three advisers to President Donald Trump’s campaign were charged as a result of the probe into Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential election. The New York Times called the development ‘the most explicit evidence to date’ that the campaign was ‘eager to coordinate with the Russian government to damage his rival, Hillary Clinton.’

It emerged that Russian intelligence services used intermediaries to contact the Trump campaign’s former foreign policy adviser, George Papadopoulos, to gain influence. In April 2016, the Russians offered the campaign ‘dirt’ on Clinton in the form of thousands of emails.

Papadopoulos and two others were charged nine months after the Office of the Director of National Intelligence noted in January 2017 that Russian President Vladimir Putin ‘ordered an influence the campaign’ in 2016 to damage Clinton’s ‘electability and potential presidency.’ The note added that Putin and Russia ‘developed a clear preference’ for Trump.

Bad Blood

Putin appeared eager to get even with Clinton over years of bad blood. On the 2008 campaign trail, Clinton rubbed Putin the wrong way by referring to the Russian president’s past as a Soviet KGB intelligence agent. ‘By definition, he [Putin] does not have a soul,’ she said. Putin brushed aside her remark, saying that statesmen should not be ‘guided by their hearts, they should use their heads.’ Clinton continued attacking Putin and called him a ‘very arrogant person to deal with’ and underlined the need to ‘stand up to his bullying’.

The Putin-Clinton relationship became frostier in 2011 as pro-democracy protests swept the Arab world. The protests (Arab Spring) ousted entrenched dictators such as Hosni Mubarak from power. In Russia, slogans such as ‘Putin, get out of here’ rend the air soon. Tens of thousands took to the streets in the biggest protest in Moscow in two decades.

Clinton rubbed it in after Putin announced he would run for president for the third time as the protests escalated. ‘The Russian people, like people everywhere, deserve the right to have their voices heard and their votes counted,’ said Clinton. She expressed ‘serious concerns’ about the conduct of the Russian parliamentary elections and growing restrictions on fundamental rights.

Putin is believed to have seen this as an attempt to topple him. He blamed Clinton for inciting the protests against him—a grudge many linked to the hacking scandal that rocked her 2016 US presidential campaign. Over 1,900 emails were leaked after Russian hackers allegedly hacked the email accounts of Clinton’s colleagues in the middle of her tight race for the presidency against Trump. Clinton blamed Putin for contributing to her defeat through Russian hackers’ intrusions into her Democratic Party leaders’ emails.

Rash Decisions

Trump did little to allay fears and fuelled suspicions that Putin held some sway over him with his rash decisions during his first term. He fired Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) director James B Comey while the agency was leading a probe into the collusion of Trump’s campaign with Russia. Trump grudgingly fired National Security Adviser (NSA) Michael Flynn for misleading Vice President Mike Pence about his contacts with the Russian ambassador to the US. Flynn refused to turn over documents about the probe into interference and Trump allegedly asked Comey to end the investigation against Flynn.

The Trump-Putin affinity gathered steam since Trump’s return to office. Trump blamed Ukraine for not wanting peace with Russia and praised Putin. Trump accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of starting the war triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He stopped intelligence sharing with Ukraine when it desperately needed it against Russian forces.

Trump-Putin affinity is believed to stem from a common cause and merging interests against common adversaries, such as European leaders. US government inquiries, foreign intelligence services, and media organisations have scrutinized the Trump-Putin relationship. They have confirmed Trump-Putin affinity even as the Russian President has, for years, undermined American interests.

Susan Miller, the former Central Intelligence Agency counterintelligence head who led the agency’s 2017 assessment on Russian election interference, believes Trump-Putin affinity boils down to ‘autocrat envy’. She noted Trump covets Putin’s power to make unconstrained decisions. Miller believes Trump likes Putin because the Russian leader has control over his country and wants the same over his own.

New World Order

In 2017, American intelligence agencies concluded that Putin ordered the sabotage of the US election to cripple the faith Americans have in their elections and undermine a US-led ‘liberal world order’ that the Russians see as a threat. American agencies assessed Russia’s work to help Trump win the election.

The Russian interference in the 2016 election accelerated fears about Putin’s attempts to restore his country’s status in the world by destroying American democracy, rigging the election, and reshaping the world order. Putin’s past as a KGB agent gives credence to these apprehensions.

Putin has been open about the sense of humiliation he felt over the collapse of the Soviet Union, which he deeply loved. He has called the Soviet breakup the ‘greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century’ that traumatized, changed him, and possibly made him determined to get back at the US for facilitating it.