Iran overcome restrictions on accessing weapons and technology thanks to a resilient and adaptable military-industrial complex, which has been classified as a ‘niche supplier’, concentrating on surface-to-surface precision-guided munitions
When the United States (US) and Israel attacked Iran on February 28 and killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on day one, President Donald Trump expected a quick capitulation. It was immediately clear that Trump had underestimated Iran’s resolve and capabilities. Iranians moved quickly to pick up the pieces. They filled the power vacuum by appointing Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as his successor, and launched an effective retaliation.
Iran targeted American military facilities, energy infrastructure in the Gulf states, and Israel, sparking a regional war that disrupted supply chains with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global energy supplies pass. Iranian bombing on US bases forced troops to relocate to hotels and office spaces throughout West Asia.
The New York Times reported that much of the land-based American military was fighting remotely, except fighter pilots and crews that operated and maintained warplanes and conducted strikes. Iran was hunting for the dispersed troops as the war entered its fourth week. The Times noted that the relocation of troops raised questions about the Trump administration’s preparations for the US-Iran war. The US was forced to disperse thousands of its around 40,000 troops stationed in West Asia to as far away as Europe.
Iran’s Deterrence Strategy
In the face of the Iranian counter-attack, Trump abruptly announced a pause in the showdown as he seemingly misjudged Iran’s capabilities. Iran is believed to have West Asia’s largest inventory of ballistic missiles. It unleashed a range of cruise, ballistic missiles, and drones.
Iran’s longest-range missiles are reportedly capable of covering all of West Asia and parts of Europe. They can hit targets of up to 2,000 kilometers away. Its most advanced Fattah-1 and Kheybar Shekan missiles, with a range of about 1,400 kilometres, are more difficult to intercept. Both have manoeuvring warheads, thereby complicating defence as they can strike with better accuracy.
Iran’s quest for strong deterrence and effective defence against foreign interference dates back to 1953, when its democratically elected prime minister, Mohammed Mossadegh, was overthrown for nationalizing oil and ending the British-controlled Anglo-Iranian Petroleum Company monopoly of Iran’s petroleum wealth. Britain retaliated with sanctions, a naval embargo, and a covert plan to remove Mossadegh for his decision to invest oil revenues in the welfare of his people.
From Operation Ajax to Missile Doctrine
The US stepped in with Operation Ajax when Britain failed to remove Mossadegh. The American Central Intelligence Agency engineered a coup. It bribed politicians, influenced the press, and mobilised military officers to remove Mossadegh, who would spend the rest of his life under house arrest.
The seizure of the US embassy in Tehran and the 444-day hostage crisis sought to prevent a 1953-style coup when Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini led the 1979 Revolution and ousted the Shah. Washington imposed crippling sanctions in retaliation and backed Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Iran in 1980. The eight-year war that followed left around a million people.
Iraq’s missile attacks on Iran’s cities left a deep psychological impact, making a missile programme the centerpiece of Iranian military doctrine. Passive defense, developed after the 1991 American invasion of Iraq, is the most significant of Iranian doctrines. It seeks to prevent US aircraft and missiles from identifying and destroying Iranian targets.
Iran developed capabilities to mobilise a large, dispersed guerrilla force to retake lost territory and withstand foreign interventions in the aftermath of the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, in what is referred to as ‘anti-access/area denial’. Iran has focused on extending the range of its missiles and submarines aimed at US maritime operations in the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Arabian Sea as strategypart of this stragegy.
Iran’s Asymmetric Military Doctrine
Iranian military doctrine draws mostly on lessons learned for effective, pragmatic solutions to security challenges. It incorporates foreign military thinking and capabilities, especially those of the US. The Iranian armed forces have appeared hesitant to go beyond defense, deterrence, and asymmetric warfare in most circumstances. Islamic teachings on retaliation limit Iran’s willingness to employ force that it sees as disproportionate.
Iran has overcome restrictions on accessing weapons and technology through rational choices. It has sustained and improved the production of its surface-to-surface munitions thanks to a resilient and adaptable military-industrial complex. Iran’s military industry has been classified as a ‘niche supplier’, concentrating on surface-to-surface precision-guided munitions due to geopolitical constraints. Before the Revolution, Iran acquired weapon systems from the West through technology transfer agreements.
Iran was forced to adopt an asymmetric deterrence strategy to impose costs on adversaries as it faced sanctions after the Revolution. It produces platforms to maintain and upgrade aircraft and armoured vehicles. With modest naval capabilities, Iran focuses on low-displacement vessels and mini-submarines. Constraints have forced Iran to prioritise long-range, surface-launched munitions since the 1980s. Iran developed Shahad 1 and 2 liquid-fuel ballistic missiles, the Fateh-family of solid-fuel short-range ballistic missiles, and land attack cruise missiles such as the Soumar, the Hoveizeh, and the Paveh.
Iran has made advances in Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAV), such as the Shahed-series. Its loitering attack drone Shahed-129 is modelled after the Israeli Hermes-450. An abundance of industrial chemicals such as ammonium nitrate, sulfuric acid, nitrocellulose, nitroglycerine and toluene, the elementary inputs of powder and explosives, allows Iran to build conventional systems, such as rocket, ammunition, and warhead manufacturing.
Fattah-2 Hypersonic Missile, UAVs, and Tactical Systems
Iran showcased its military capabilities and expansive weapons in November 2023, presenting Khamenei with rocket-powered ‘cruise missiles’, surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, improved variants of direct-attack precision-guided munitions, and a previously unseen long-endurance uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV) at Tehran’s Aerospace Force Museum.
Fattah 2, a winged missile believed to be capable of hypersonic speeds, was among the capabilities showcased. It dovetailed with Iran’s ambition to acquire higher-speed cruise weapons to complement its subsonic land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs). Iran was also believed to be building a wind tunnel capable of supporting high-speed aerodynamics research.
Russia signed a contract with Iran in late 2023 for the purchase of Fath-360 and Ababil close-range ballistic missiles (CRBMs). Fath-360 and Ababil systems are less well-known than their longer-range counterparts, illustrating Iran’s recent focus on developing short-range tactical missiles adapted from larger, existing weapon designs.
What Drives Iran’s Military Resilience
Fath-360, also known under its export designation BM-120, is a scaled-down version of Iran’s Fateh class of precision-guided solid-propellant missiles. It straddles the line between SRBMs and guided artillery rockets. Fath-360 can be launched from containerized multiple-launch platforms. The Ababil has a range of 86 km. It carries a 45-kilogram warhead. Ababil was promoted for export at Russia’s Army 2024 exhibition. Fath-360 and Ababil systems are believed to have a higher level of accuracy.
Short-range and low-altitude Azarakhsh (thunderbolt), a radar-equipped infrared detection and electro-optic system to detect and intercept targets, is among a range of surface-to-air missile defence systems, including indigenous Bavar-373. Iran is estimated to have at least 12 types of medium-range and short-range ballistic missiles, including the Tondar 69, Khorramshahr, and Sejjil, with ranges between 150km and 2,000km.
Iran’s ability to resist despite crippling sanctions and mount an effective counter-attack against much more powerful adversaries should also be seen in civilizational terms. As heirs to icons such as Al-Khwarizmi, the father of algebra, and Avicenna, the founder of modern medicine, Iran has invested in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education. Innovation hubs such as Sharif University of Technology and Tehran University produce quality engineers, scientists, and technical specialists, helping Iran overcome supply chain constraints, reverse-engineer, adapt, and indigenize technology. Iran’s drone designs, missile guidance systems, and air defense networks are cost-effective and scalable, allowing it to push back an overwhelming technological and military onslaught.
