Imran Khan’s resilient youth and the middle-class base challenged the influence of the Pakistan military through ballot despite odds, resulting in an election outcome that signals a turning point in the country’s political landscape
On March 3, Shehbaz Sharif was elected as Pakistan’s Prime Minister for the second time amid a cloud of uncertainty over whether his new coalition government could usher in some modicum of political stability. The second and third-largest parties in parliament, the Pakistan Muslim League-(Nawaz) or PLM(N) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), again coalesced to form the government after the delayed general election was finally held on February 8 amid political turmoil.
Prime Minister Imran Khan’s ouster from power after his falling out with the Pakistan military sparked the turmoil in April 2022. The military, which has had an outsized role in politics, was widely believed to have planned Khan’s further isolation but could not prevent his candidates from emerging as the largest group in parliament.
The Pakistan military mended fences with and propped up his rival, three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, making him the favourite to win the election. Sharif’s return from London accordingly in October from a self-imposed exile was smooth. He was immediately granted bail and made eligible to contest polls, confirming scales were tipped in favour of his Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) or PML (N).
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The electoral playing field was unlevelled like never before in recent history. Khan was hurriedly sentenced a week before the election in three trumped-up cases including one related to leaking of state and disqualification from running for office. His Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) suffered another major jolt after the Supreme Court upheld the stripping of its election symbol— the cricket bat—a month before the election in January for failing to hold intraparty elections mandated by its constitution.
The bat was more than just a symbol. It also signified Khan’s glorious cricketing career. One of the all-time greats of the game, Khan transformed Pakistan’s cricket team into a world-beater in the 1980s. Oxford-educated and charismatic on and off the field, he led by example. The 1992 World Cup victory, Pakistan’s best cricketing moment, was his swansong. Khan’s philanthropic work post-retirement from cricket enhanced his stature as one of the most loved heroes.
The loss of the electoral symbol meant that PTI candidates ran as independents disadvantaging them further. Election symbols are of great importance in the Indian subcontinent. Candidates in this part of the world are better identified by their symbols in the absence of universal education.
The PTI has been unable to claim seats reserved for women and religious minorities as it did not contest as a party with a symbol. Since its candidates were elected as Independent, they were also free to join any party. This left them vulnerable to poaching but they have mostly remained loyal to Khan.
Thousands of PTI members and leaders were earlier jailed in the run-up to the polls or forced to quit politics as part of a sweeping crackdown following attacks on military installations during protests against Khan’s first arrest in May 2023.
An internet and cellular services blackout under the pretext of security considerations ahead of the election added insult to injury. It was expected to disrupt turnout and yet people thronged to polling stations ensuring PTI-backed independent candidates won 93 out of 266 seats.
PML-N and the PPP won 75 and 54 seats. The PTI alleged widespread rigging denied it an outright majority, citing discrepancies in constituency-level and polling station results. There were unexplained delays in vote counting. The candidates and their polling agents were in many cases denied the right to oversee the counting of votes and tabulation.
Yet the result blew up in the face of the military establishment, or the army’s high command and top echelons of the judiciary and bureaucracy, raising questions over the extent of its ability to influence politics. The electorate delivered a decisive vote both against the military’s political meddling and the dynastic parties.
The military’s role in the country’s politics may no longer be tenable given the nature of Khan’s supporter base of the youth and middle class. The base is large and growing with people under the age of 35 currently accounting for 44% of the electorate. This also explains why PTI’s innovative campaigning including the use of artificial intelligence and social media worked, for instance, in keeping the voters informed on who the PTI-backed candidates were despite their varied electoral symbols.
Yet the status quo prevails for now with Shehbaz Sharif, seen to be more acceptable to the military unlike his brother Nawaz Sharif whose falling out with the military led to his removal as prime minister thrice, at the helm. Nawaz Sharif’s daughter, Maryam, has taken over as the chief minister of Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province accounting for the country’s over 50% population.
Asif Ali Zardari of the PPP is set to become the president for a second time as traditional politicians closed ranks to keep PTI-backed independents out of power. Khan’s popularity in part stems from his unrelenting opposition to the two dynastic parties, which are seen to be corrupt. It is bound to grow if he stays the course in opposing the political status quo.
Western governments have, meanwhile, echoed PTI’s call for investigations of alleged election fraud but would prefer the new government to continue working closely with the military. They would back its efforts to fix the economy with loans worth about $24 billion due in the next few months. The army now has direct involvement in the economy with the army chief being a member of a special investment facilitation council.
The military has gotten a weak coalition government it prefers for better control but its grip over the political affairs is set to weaken as masses are increasingly dissatisfied. The military’s projection as the guarantor of stability has suffered irreparable damage. It has been unable to stem an ongoing political crisis.
The compromised elections have only led to more political polarisation, raising serious question marks on the stability of the new coalition government. The people are expected to be more determined to utilize the power of their votes next time even more decisively as they realise the chinks in the military’s armour that meant it failed to decimate the PTI despite the most sweeping crackdown on a political party in recent decades.
Pakistan’s decline would sooner or later trigger a political reset. The stage-managed democracy that ensured the return of corrupt dynastic parties to power has dealt the most serious blow to the legitimacy of the system. A mounting financial crisis will eventually force the military’s hand in agreeing to an overhaul of the system.
The Pakistan military cannot risk further instability, which leaves the country vulnerable and with its economic privileges as an institution. Khan’s young, urban supporters are enraged. The unrest is only likely to grow as Pakistan with just around $10bn of reserves continues to be vulnerable to default.
Political reset through the strengthening of institutions capable of delivering clean politics and economic reform is in the army’s long-term interest since it too needs a stronger economy to truly remain a guarantor against chaos.
The elections have plunged Pakistan into a deeper crisis rather than ushering in some semblance of stability. The dubious electoral process and questions over its legitimacy will haunt the new coalition government while it needs to be more focused on mitigating the economic crisis. The economic ruin will sooner or later force the military establishment to recalibrate and give the PTI its due as it can no longer wish away the resilience of its voters.
The establishment cannot afford to alienate already restive urban middle-class voters. The old guard it banked on has become irrelevant to a growing demographic of the younger population. Twenty million new young voters, who constituted 44% of the electorate this year, are believed to be mostly Khan’s supporters. Their future is at stake amid an economic downturn, inflation, and growing inequities.
The establishment can deal with the groundswell of support for Khan and a tectonic shift in Pakistan’s polity only by respecting the people’s will. Pakistan cannot do without a stable government needed for the much-needed economic reforms that end subsidies for the rich, and divert them for human development.
The dependence on international finance institutions for financial solvency can be ended only when a government has the legitimacy to ensure public welfare, and development spending while at the same time absorbing discontent over inflation, unemployment, etc. A government seen to be lacking legitimacy will fuel PTI’s popularity further.
A pliable government can protect the military’s hegemony but it cannot also afford this at the cost of sagging popularity particularly in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where the bulk of the soldiers are recruited from. The electorate has endorsed Khan’s call for haqaqi azaadi or true freedom and against the establishment’s meddling in politics, marking a step forward in Pakistan’s flawed democratic experiment.
But Khan’s track record does not inspire much hope. His populism hardly makes him a beacon of light for democracy. He has failed the basic test of a democrat by refusing to engage with his political rivals to find a way out of the mess their country finds itself in.
Will Khan change his spots to capitalize on the gains of the 2024 elections? The continuity of an electoral process and the establishment’s failure in fully engineering it holds out hope for democracy. A battle has been won, but Khan could lose the war by continuing to resort to polarising politics.
Democracy will not triumph over authoritarianism without political flexibility. A genuine democratic dispensation cannot be ushered in if political parties continue to seek the military’s support for power. PML-N, which campaigned on the slogan of Respect the Vote last time, fell back upon the military’s support after accusing Khan of benefitting from its backing in 2018.
Like the PTI ahead of the 2024 polls, PML(N) faced issues like politically motivated cases before the elections in 2018. Major political parties such as PML(N) have altered their positions on the military’s meddling in politics whenever it has helped them get power. The 2024 election results show the military cannot guarantee a popular mandate and parties can no longer neglect voter preferences. The politicians have to find a viable alternative to the hybrid regime that has failed to deliver.
Sameer Arshad Khatlani is a journalist and the author of the Penguin Random House book The Other Side of the Divide
