The Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh continue to endure worsening conditions, facing a grim choice between staying in miserable conditions or returning to the insecure environment that caused their exodus
Children as young as three were among dozens who drowned when a boat carrying Rohingya Muslims hit a rock and capsized in heavy seas off Bangladesh in September 2017. The visuals of dead babies and their grieving parents, who somehow evaded murderous mobs and the Myanmar military, cradling and kissing them final goodbyes before burial in a mass grave fuelled outrage.
The tragedy was the latest in a humanitarian crisis triggered by Myanmar’s military campaign against Rohingya in the northern Rakhine state. The US said the ‘brutal, sustained campaign was meant to cleanse the country of an ethnic minority.’ In August 2022, Reuters reported war crimes investigators obtained documents shedding new light on the campaign to expel the Muslim minority, as well as efforts to hide it.
The documents showed Burmese military commanders held secret talks about operations against the Rohingya, a persecuted minority stripped of citizenship, and discussed ways to plant spies in their villages. They planned to demolish Muslim homes and mosques, and what they referred to as ‘area clearance.’
The commanders used a racial slur for the Rohingya suggesting they are foreign interlopers. The Myanmar military weeks later started the brutal crackdown. Reuters reported the documents showed how it systematically demonised the Rohangiya, created militias that would take part in violence against them, and coordinated actions with ultranationalist Buddhist monks.
The campaign would force around 750,000 Rohingya to flee to Bangladesh. It was their third major exodus to Bangladesh since 1978 in the face of their dispossession. Myanmar stopped issuing the Rohingya birth certificates in the 1990s. Rohingya required permits to marry or leave their villages. They were restricted from accessing university education and barred from getting government jobs.
Most Rohingya have not returned as Myanmar continues to be reluctant to grant them citizenship, which has been the main cause of their plight. They fear they will continue to be denied basic rights such as freedom of movement, to run businesses or own land, and access health care and education without citizenship.
There appears to be no end in sight for the plight of Rohingya in Bangladesh, where around 800,000 of them are packed in contiguous camps clustered in Kutupalong in the southern Cox’s Bazar district. The Rohingya in this largest refugee settlement in the world outnumber locals by almost two to one.
Untenable Choice
As the global focus remained on Israel’s genocidal military campaign in Gaza and the Russian war on Ukraine, Crisis Group warned in a December 2023 report that the living conditions for the Rohingya refugees have declined dramatically. It added the refugees were confronted with an untenable choice between remaining in growing immiseration or going home to the insecurity that forced them to leave. Bangladesh has sought refugee repatriation to end the burdens of hosting them.
The report said Dhaka resists policy changes that might make it more attractive for refugees to stay put even as the deteriorating security situation and the absence of protective safeguards meant that large-scale repatriation was unlikely. It added Bangladesh law enforcement’s failure to stop armed and criminal groups inside the camps was the main reason for this.
A reduction in funding to sustain them amid a shift in focus to other conflicts has increased the Rohingya suffering. In 2022, foreign assistance for the Rohingya in Bangladesh dropped below $600 million for the first time. It was barely 45% funded until the end of November 2023, compared to 64% in 2022 and 73% in 2021. The cash crunch forced the UN to streamline services and camp management in 2021.
The Crisis Group said the fund shortfall in 2023 forced a cut in food support twice, leading to a total reduction of one-third. The budget per refugee monthly has been reduced from $12 to just $8, or 27 cents a day. The Crisis Group said the cuts have been devastating with most refugees having no income to supplement their rations.
The UN estimates that 85% of refugees may be facing crisis levels of food insecurity. Scabies affected an estimated 40% of refugees in 2023 due to overcrowding, inadequate water supplies, poor sanitation, and shortages of medicine.
Dangerous Coping Mechanisms
The Crisis Group said Rohingya refugees have adopted dangerous coping mechanisms with girls and women frequently turning to sex work. Many of them were being married off young either to Bangladeshis or to Rohingya immigrants in places such as Malaysia, which requires dangerous trips in boats. According to the UN, the number of Rohingya taking to the sea to find sanctuary abroad in 2022 increased by five times to over 3,500. Around 10% of them died or went missing en route.
Five vessels carrying 866 people landed in the space of one week in November 2023 on the Indonesian island of Aceh after spending around two months at sea. The Crisis Group said the journeys show how desperate people are to leave due to violence and poverty.
Tougher asylum policies including detentions have led to the emergence of new smuggling routes. The Crisis Group said rather than travel directly to Malaysia, Thailand, or Indonesia by boat, refugees started travelling through Myanmar in 2019 using a combination of sea and ground transport. Some have even been making the entire trek overland taking advantage of porous borders.
Exacerbating The Problem
The Crisis Group blamed Bangladesh’s policies for exacerbating the problem, saying Dhaka is sensitive to measures that suggest the Rohingya population may remain in the country due to the country’s large population and development challenges. Dhaka believes that repatriation is the only solution to the crisis and has blocked any action that it believes may discourage or delay Rohingya return.
Bangladesh has banned refugees from seeking employment, leaving them dependent on aid. The refugees are only allowed to build temporary bamboo and tarpaulin shelters, which need regular replacement.
Bangladesh has encouraged refugees to relocate to cyclone-prone Bhasan Char, a silt island repurposed in the Bay of Bengal about 40km from the mainland. The island is unpopular among refugees due to its remoteness. Yet around 30,000 Rohingya have been transferred there. Bangladesh plans to send 100,000 refugees there.
Crisis Group said refugees in some cases appear to have been coerced into moving to the island. Some were physically sent there even as Bangladesh and Myanmar have resumed efforts to repatriate Rohingya refugees under a 2017 agreement. Myanmar’s then-Aung San Suu Kyi government’s failure to provide guarantees to the Rohingya regarding citizenship and security frustrated attempts for repatriation in 2018 and 2019.
Myanmar’s military regime wants some refugees to return to help its defence at the International Court of Justice, where it faces a case under the Genocide Convention. The Crisis Group noted allowing returns would undermine allegations that it committed genocide, which requires showing that the perpetrator had genocidal intent, and alleviate international pressure the military regime faces post-coup.
MORE THAN MEETS THE EYE
Myanmar is willing to take back a limited number of refugees while claiming that no more than 500,000 fled to Bangladesh. It has reviewed the eligibility of barely 15% of the Rohingya that Bangladesh has put forward for repatriation, rejecting around one-third. Movement on repatriation was expected to boost the ruling Awami League ahead of the polls in January as it faces increased international pressure due to its growing authoritarianism.
In 2023, Dhaka and Myanmar agreed to a repatriation pilot project under which 1,176 refugees were to return in the first phase, not necessarily to their communities of origin. The Crisis Group said the pilot project faltered when it became clear that none of the Rohingya listed for repatriation were willing to return under current conditions.
The refugees have insisted on receiving citizenship and the return to their original villages. Myanmar has insisted that the refugees register under a citizenship verification scheme. The Crisis Group said this offers neither any meaningful rights nor any guarantee of being afforded citizenship. Refugees have opposed aspects of the repatriation plan that include the requirement of staying in transit camps for an unspecified duration.
The experience of an estimated 600,000 Rohingya in Rakhine informs the reluctance of refugees to repatriate. At least 148,000 Rohingya remain displaced in camps, villages, and displacement sites in Myanmar. They have limited employment options due to limitations on their rights. The military regime has tried to close their camps without providing alternatives.
The Crisis Group cautioned the repatriation decision seems to be designed to improve the military regime’s image. The regime has shown little interest in the welfare of residents of the two camps that have shut down so far. The regime has demanded that the UN no longer refer to those who have been expelled from the camps as Internally Displaced Persons, despite the unchanged living conditions.
The Crisis Group warned the security situation in Rakhine means that the Rohingyas returning risk displacement again, as Myanmar’s failure to make progress on citizenship and other safeguards suggests that the dynamics that drove them out in the first place remain unaddressed.
Sameer Arshad Khatlani is a journalist and the author of The Other Side of the Divide
