Indonesia’s incoming president Prabowo Subianto faces economic growth challenges and the need to uphold democratic values in the world’s most populous and diverse Muslim nation with rich religious and cultural pluralism
The elections in Bangladesh and Taiwan were the first in a series of elections in 2024, which has been described as the election year. More people voted this year than ever in history. At least 62 countries and the European Union with a population of about 49% of the people globally held or were due to hold national elections in 2024.
Indonesia, the world’s third-largest democracy, was the first major country among the nations holding elections in 2024 on February 14. President Joko Widodo, better known as Jokowi, is stepping down after two terms. As many as 204 million voters were eligible to vote across the world’s biggest archipelago of over 17,800 islands, isles, and islets. Voters elected the national assembly, governors, and legislative bodies apart from picking Jokowi’s successor, Prabowo Subianto.
Most Pluralistic Nation
Indonesia, a country of over 525 languages and dialects, is one of the most pluralistic nations with multiple ethnic, linguistic, cultural, and religious groups. It is also the world’s most populous Muslim country and home to 12.7% of Muslims globally. Muslims account for 87.21% of Indonesia’s population, Christians 9.62%, and Hindus 1.83%.
Ninety percent of Indonesia’s Hindus—around 3.4 million—are concentrated in Bali. Bali, a Hindu enclave, is an emblem of Indonesia’s religious pluralism where Jokowi presided over the ceremony for the inauguration of the world’s tallest Hindu statue (Garuda Vishnu Kencana) in 2018. A statue of Hindu Goddess Saraswati adorns the Indonesian embassy in Washington DC as a symbol of religious freedom in the Southeast Asian country.
Pluralism in Southeast Asia, which is home to about 25% of the world’s Muslims and is often described as the Muslim archipelago, is most striking in Indonesia. It has been nurtured thanks to the enshrining of Indonesia’s national ideology Pancasila, in the country’s constitution. Humanism, democracy, and social justice are among the five principles of Pancasila.
Pancasila embodies the spirit of the modus vivendi the Prophet Muhammad created through Mithaq al-Madinah, or Medina Charter after his flight from Mecca. The Charter, which has also been described as the Constitution of Medina, called all groups of Medina, including Jews, as one nation. The inclusion of the Charter’s spirit dovetails with the adoption of Islam’s middle path, or ummah wasat, in Southeast Asia and particularly in Indonesia thanks to the history of its peaceful propagation and integration into diverse ethnic, cultural, and social realities.
A candidate quota requires Indonesian parties to nominate at least 30% of women, encouraging them to run and parties to nominate them. Women lawmakers were instrumental in the passage of the Anti-Sexual Violence law in 2023, which defines sexual abuse, including non-physical, forced contraception, sterilisation without consent, forced marriage, sexual torture, and abuse through electronic means. The law also recognises sexual abuse within marriages
The Challenges And Opportunities
Prabowo Subianto faces the challenge of maintaining the pace of economic growth under Jokowi’s watch over the last 10 years. The outgoing president oversaw an expansion of GDP by 52% during the decade. As many as 18 ports, 21 airports, and 1,700km of toll roads have been built since Jokowi took office in 2014. Indonesia’s gross national income per person has grown to $4,180 from $3600 in 2014. Only four percent of Indonesians live on $2.15 a day or less, which is three-quarters less than those in 2012.
Global demand for commodities such as nickel due to the energy transition is expected to benefit Indonesia, which is projected to be the world’s fourth-largest producer of green commodities used in batteries and grids by 2030. A fifth of global reserves of nickel used in batteries makes Indonesia key to the electric-vehicle supply chains. Indonesia has banned the export of raw materials to force global firms to build factories locally and secured over $20bn of investment in return. Carmaker Hyundai started manufacturing electric cars in Indonesia in 2022.
Indonesia is the sixth-biggest emerging market by GDP. It has grown faster than other $1 trillion-plus economies save China and India over the past decade as it has combined democracy with economic reform and social harmony. Indonesia is on the cusp of becoming one of the world’s 10 biggest economies.
Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in the Japan Times that Prabowo Subianto may have had a long career in the military and public office, but his politics have evolved over time. Kurlantzick wrote that Prabowo Subianto’s administration will likely diverge from what has come before even as the president-elect has largely served in Jokowi’s shadow over the past decade and owes much of his recent political success to the current president:
For example, Prabowo has expressed a keen interest in foreign policy, an issue Jokowi was uninterested in. He may vastly expand Jokowi’s welfare programs at the expense of Indonesia’s economy and fiscal outlook. However, the democratic regression Indonesia experienced under Jokowi is sure to persist under Prabowo, which is an unwelcome continuity
The Downside
Jokowi has been credited with overseeing rapid economic growth but concerns remain about democratic backsliding, revival of cronyism, and promotion of dynastic politics. He was the first outsider to breach a clique of leaders who rose during Suharto’s 32-year authoritarian rule. Power changed hands between political, business, and military elites until Jokowi’s rise to power.
Australian National University research fellow Sana Jaffrey wrote that Jokowi quickly learned that while popular support may have helped him ascend to power, exercising it in a system controlled by Suharto-era elites required playing by their rules. She noted Widodo unlike his predecessors, lacks the political pedigree that would give him influence in politics after exiting office:
He is drawing, instead, on his enduring popularity and control over state institutions to ensure the election of a friendly successor and establish himself among a new generation of kingmakers
Sana Jaffrey, research fellow, Australian National University
Prabowo Subianto, 72, a former special forces commander and one of the three presidential candidates who will take office in October, picked up Jokowi’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, 36, as his running mate. Indonesia’s constitutional court made an exception to a rule to allow Raka to contest. The rule prevents candidates under 40 from running. Jokowi’s brother-in-law is the chief justice of the constitutional court.
Jokowi defeated Prabowo Subianto, who has championed the outgoing president’s Jokowinomics or infrastructure-led development, twice before inducting him into his cabinet as defence minister.
Subianto was in pole position to be the next president following an image makeover years after being dismissed from the military for alleged rights abuses, which also promoted a United States travel ban. He has cultivated a charismatic persona since he was appointed the defence minister in 2019.
The Other Candidates
Anies Baswedan, 54, a former university rector, was credited with strengthening flood defences, introducing school meals for the poorest children, and promptly responding to the Covid-19 pandemic as the governor of Indonesia’s capital Jakarta and education minister. His running mate Muhaimin Iskandar heads a party linked to Nahdlatul Ulama. Baswedan, who studied in the US, vowed to enhance Indonesia’s influence as a technocrat well-versed in foreign affairs.
Ganjar Pranowo, 55, a two-time governor of Central Java province and Jokowi’s co-ordinating security minister, belongs to the party of former President Megawati Sukarnoputri. A technocrat, he banked on a grassroots campaign launched in Papua. His canvassing has involved impromptu visits. Pranowo picked Mahfud MD as his running mate, promising free and active foreign policy to boost security.
Sameer Arshad Khatlani is a journalist and the author of the Penguin Random House book The Other Side of the Divide
